
CIG Asset Management Update November 2020: Change and Balance
Summary:
- November was an extraordinary month for stocks globally.
- 0% interest rates and a 64% increase in the money supply create months of speculation, like November.
- Our most important job is to balance the amount of offensive and defensive investments in portfolios given an uncertain near-term future.
Commentary:
Positive vacine news from Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca helped make November an extraordinary month for stocks globally, despite the pandemic still raging in many areas.
Last month, the S&P 500 Index was up +10.8%[i] while the international stocks, as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index Net, gained +15.5%[ii]. Emerging Market stocks (MSCI EM) returned +9.3%[iii]. The standout country returns were two long-term laggards – Spain and Brazil (as calculated by MSCI) – which both increased in the neighborhood of +30%[iv]. Some of the most beaten-down areas of the U.S. market soared in November, including small companies, energy, financials and industrials[v]. CIG’s client accounts tied to growth and balanced approaches generally had one of their best months in the last five years.
Where do we go from here? Near-term performance can be notoriously difficult to predict. As we mentioned in our October update, underneath the surface of a post-election rising market tide, our measures of the underlying health of the markets continue to worsen. For example, on a small scale, recently Zoom Media (ZM) was down more than -15% one day – despite being an essential tool for many and beating investor expectations seemingly on almost every conceivable metric[vi]. When good news doesn’t translate into good stock returns but rather a sharp decline, we perk up our ears.
We, however, remain focused on the big picture. Global stock markets are now worth over $100 trillion, rising to a record high[vii] and equal to 115% of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), i.e., the sum of all the goods and services produced[viii]. In the U.S., the stock market is unprecidentally expensive and equal to over 180% of the country’s GDP[ix]. While there is great variability about the future, it is likely a mistake to not be careful and thoughtful when buying stocks this expensive.
In markets like November, where the “Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO)” is seemingly driving participants, indepth study of stocks and economies are displaced by emotional biases which are supported by 0% interest rates and a 64% increase in the money supply[x] by the Central Banks. Such speculative behavior is the nature of market cycles and one of the primary elements necessary to create the proper setting for an eventual reversion or change. Last month, we discussed how it appeared that investors in October started to choose between decelerating and expensive large companies versus opportunities in growing and cheaper small companies. Small cap stocks, as measured by the Russell 2000 Index, had their best month ever in November 2020 and gained 18.3%[xi]. Overall, small company stocks are up dramatically off the March 2020 lows[xii] when we added to investments there. While still unconfirmed, evidence of change appears to be beginning.
Our most important question today is how the balance should be set today between aggressiveness and defensiveness in clients portfolios to take just enough risk to generate attractive returns to meet their financial goals in these very uncertain times. Then, how do we apply an active tactical approach and find undervalued investments that are poised to enter a period of market outperformance like the cheaper small companies mentioned above and where client portfolios already have some investments. All year, we have had a plan for more offensive investments if the economy does get better as well as a plan for the opposite outcome. In December, we added to an investment which we expect would increase in value if people stay and shop at home more. As always, we will continue to apply diversification and balance between the appropriate risk and returns.
Please be well and stay safe. We are encouraged by the latest vaccine results but expect a dark, uncertain winter. We suggest continuing to monitor the Johns Hopkins University’s Daily COVID-19 Data in Motion video.
This report was prepared by CIG Asset Management and reflects the current opinion of the authors. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
[i] https://finance.yahoo.com/
[ii] https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search
[iii] https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search
[iv] https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search. MSCI Spain Index Net and Brazil ADR Index Net.
[vi] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ZM/history?p=ZM
[vii] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets/world-shares-hold-close-to-record-highs-u-s-markets-close-for-thanksgiving-idUSKBN28601F
[viii] Bloomberg. WCAUWRLD Index as of 12/5/2020.
[ix] https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php
[x] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1
[xi] https://finance.yahoo.com/
[xii] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ERUT/history?p=%5ERUT

CIG Asset Management Update October 2020: A New Hope?
Summary:
- Diversifying to include Emerging Markets helps in tough month for Developed Markets.i,ii,iii
- Continued worries about rising COVID-19 cases and the economy.iv
- Narratives appear to be shifting as more evidence of a potential market inflexion point.
Commentary:
Globally, this month was tough for Developed Markets and not for Emerging Markets. In October, returns for the S&P 500 were -2.8%[i] and MSCI EAFE was -4.1%[ii] while the MSCI Emering Markets was +2.0%[iii]. It was the second month in a row of monthly declines in U.S. equities. As mentioned before, we continue to employ diversification specifically to areas like Emerging Markets to potentially cushion against U.S. equity losses as in October.
Overall, Developed Markets suffered from increasing COVID-19 cases[iv] and in the U.S., diminished hopes of a pre-election stimulus package. The month culminated with a -5.6%[v] sell off during the last week when technology earnings missed expectations, with Microsoft disappointing most in our opinion.
Underneath the surface of a post-election rising market tide, the relative price movement in sectors and investing styles (Factors) appears staggering. Our broad measures of the underlying health of the market continue to worsen. Events happen daily that have either likely never happened before or not happened in a long time. For example, on November 4, the Dow Jones Transportation sector had its worst day relative to the S&P 500 since April 2009, down almost -4%[vi]. Growth had its best day versus Value (using Russell 1000 indices as proxies) since January 2001 – almost 20 years![vii] In our opinion, the market narrative appears to be that the Federal Reserve has everything under control and that it has “got your back.” Meanwhile, we continue to worry about how COVID-19 will affect the economy this winter given the explosion of cases shown by the Johns Hopkins University’s Daily COVID-19 Data in Motion.
In October, we saw the beginnings of a narrative shift to a scenario that reminds us of 2000, similar to what we discussed in our August update. In that market cycle, the technology bubble was formed by companies from buying to prepare for the risk that at the stroke of midnight on January 1, 2000 their computers would be unable to function. In 2020, companies and individuals spent on technology to work from home during a pandemic. In both cases, decelerating earnings occurred once priorities shifted away from investments in technology. Last month, it appeared that investors started to choose between decelerating and expensive large companies versus opportunities in growing and cheaper small companies where client portfolios have some investments. Specifically, the Russell 1000 Growth Index (large) lost -4.7%i versus the Russell 2000 Index (small) gained 3.4%i in October. This shift is potentially bullish for CIG’s portfolios and less so for investors indulging in passive investments[viii].
We would like to thank our clients and friends for their continued trust and support, as well as to respectfully encourage all to focus on the positives on Thanksgiving Day. Obviously, 2020 has been an excruciatingly difficult year for many of us and it continues with the contested election and the division in the country. However, we have a newfound appreciation for going to family gatherings, restaurants and sporting events, for more frequent phone calls with elders, and for being able to see our children during the workday at home.
Lastly, we suggest that you listen to the replay of our webinar “Keeping your Financial Plans Alive Amid Chaos.” We discuss the challenges, opportunities and questions ahead as we navigate the current and future market conditions.
This report was prepared by CIG Asset Management and reflects the current opinion of the authors. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
SOURCES:
[i] Yahoo Finance
[ii] https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search
[iii] https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search
[iv] https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/covid-19-daily-video
[v] Calculated by CIG using data from Yahoo Finance for 10/23 to 10/30.
[vi] Research report from Epsilon Theory, “The King is Dead. Long Live the King” dated 11/5/20.
[vii] Research report from Epsilon Theory, “The King is Dead. Long Live the King” dated 11/5/20.
[viii] While small companies as measured by the Russell 2000 small-cap index has had six 10%+ multi-day moves in 2020, per Bespoke Investment Group, the number of underlying companies with negative profits appears to be quite large relative to history and could pose a problem if investors just buy the index versus those stocks which have positive earnings.
Keeping your Financial Plans Alive Amid Chaos
Regardless of who occupies the halls of power in Washington, D.C., we should expect a tumultuous decade ahead. Because frankly, today reminds us too much of the conditions of the late 1930s.
In 2020, interest rates are at zero, government deficit spending is spiraling, national debt is soaring, and many still work from home – amid political panic, our society deeply at odds and our natural environment literally in flames around us.

To see the complete presentation, click here: https://zoom.us/rec/share/MImknez9Qj500ZQX9Ui_zGH2X9b3XK_BbjupWa0zk9jA1pRjAD4vUXqSGRL4Vm0J.OtuuygPZV71w8jGm
This presentation was prepared by CIG Asset Management and is based upon sources and
data believed to be accurate and reliable. It is not intended to serve as a solicitation, recommendation, or offer of sale for any product or security. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed reflect the current opinion of its presenters and are subject to change without notice.
CIG Capital Advisors and its affiliates do not provide tax, legal or accounting advice.
This material being presented is for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, nor be relied on for, tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any transaction.
If you’d like to schedule a conversation with a CIG Capital Advisors Senior Wealth Manager, please click here or call 248-827-1010.Â

CIG Asset Management Update September 2020: Continuing Stimulus Hope
Summary:
- Stocks fell in September as big technology companies faltered [i] .
- COVID-19 deaths hit a grim milestone in the U.S. and increased around the world [v] .
- The markets traded up or down based upon the probability of a new stimulus bill.
Commentary:
The S&P 500 declined -3.9% and the tech-heavy NASDAQ dropped -5.2%.[i] Outside of the U.S., developed markets, as measured by the MSCI EAFE net, were down -2.9% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index retreated -1.8%.[ii] Little protection was offered by Gold as it moved -4.1% lower as the US Dollar Index gained +1.9%.[iii] Fixed income (the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Total Return Index) returned -0.1% and the Barclays U.S. High Yield Index fell -1.0% for the month.[iv]

Republicans and Democrats struggled to come to an agreement to provide more stimulus to the economy. Republicans in the Senate were unable to pass their own “skinny” stimulus bill on September 10. Meanwhile, markets traded lower throughout the month as the COVID-19 death toll in the United States continued to increase and finally surpassed 200,000 on September 22.[v] Over the following two days, there were no less than sixteen Federal Reserve speeches in two days, but investors were unimpressed. Fed speakers reasserted that the Fed will do what it takes to support the economy and cautioned that what is really needed right now is more fiscal stimulus. On September 25, economy re-opening hopes blossomed when Governor DeSantis announced on that he was lifting all restrictions on the Florida economy. The following Monday, stimulus hopes were re-ignited as Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi said she was hopeful to get a $2.4 trillion coronavirus stimulus bill passed.
September’s weakness in equities and their back and forth nature keep investors on notice that both the financial markets and the economy remain on thin ice. Uncertainty abounds and volatility could increase dramatically on short notice, especially as the election nears. Investors’ latest reminder was on October 6, when these stimulus machinations whipsawed the markets again.

We continue to employ diversification, discipline and flexibility in managing client portfolios to potentially avoid air pockets like the one above. Our focus on clients’ long term financial plans remains paramount.
Please join the team at CIG Capital Advisors for an engaging discussion looking at the challenges, opportunities and questions ahead as we navigate the current and future market conditions:
WEBINAR: “Keeping your Financial Plans Alive Amid Chaos”
Tuesday, October 20 at 6 p.m.

This report was prepared by CIG Asset Management and reflects the current opinion of the authors. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
[i] Calculated from data obtained from Yahoo Finance, as of September 30, 2020
[ii] MSCI, as of September 30, 2020
[iii] Calculated from data obtained from Yahoo Finance, as of September 30, 2020
[iv] Calculated from data obtained from Bloomberg, as of September 30, 2020
[v] John Hopkins / NPR September 22, 2020

CIG Asset Management Update August 2020: A Reminiscence of a Bubble Past
The S&P 500 recorded its best August return since 1986, up +7%. The S&P5, the so called FAAMG stocks, provided a majority of the S&P return for the month[i]. Developed market stocks, excluding the U.S., as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index, rose 4.9% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained 2.1%[ii]. Domestic fixed income measured by the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate, was down -0.8%[iii]. The trade-weighted U.S. dollar index continued its decline, falling an additional -1.3% in August[iv].
As we have pointed out in previous letters, stock market valuation had already reached lofty levels as measured by overall stock market capitalization versus the size of the economy (market cap/GDP). In July, we reached 171%, eclipsing the level of the Dotcom boom in March of 2000, and it has continued to grow to 178% as of this writing[v]. A perhaps more relatable valuation metric has also reached record highs: The forward price to earnings multiple on the S&P 500 is above 26, the same level reached in March 2000. March 2000 was also the peak of the market[vi].

We have vivid recollections of the Dotcom boom and the following bust from 1999 to 2002. Strangely enough, we are currently seeing many other similarities to that era 20 years ago. In addition to comparable record market valuations as illustrated to the right, we have talked at length about the lack of breadth in the market, that a very few number of stocks are providing most of the returns for the indices. This also occurred during the Dotcom bubble. Twenty years ago it was, similar to today, technology providing the majority of the returns.
Additional events in August remind us of that era 20 years ago. During the Dotcom boom, companies would add “.com” to their name to significantly boost their stock return and participate in the bubble. Yes, it really happened and we lived through it. Three professors from the University of Purdue published a study, “A Rose.com by Any Other Name” in the December 2001 issue of The Journal of Finance, that showed company managements could increase their stock price by about 74% in the 10 days after announcing that they were adding “.com” to their name! Imagine our sense of déjà vu when Walmart announced on August 27 that it was teaming up with Microsoft to bid for TikTok, a social media platform. Walmart stock gained +4.5% on this announcement. Less than one week later on September 1, Walmart gained an additional +6% as it announced it will launch a membership program similar to Amazon Prime later in the month[vii]. Walmart has traditionally been viewed as an old-school brick and mortar retailer. It appears they are trying to change that perception.
Another phenomenon during the Dotcom bubble was to split your stock into more shares, which in many cases helped to drive the price higher. Apple announced a 4-for-1 stock split on 7/30/2020. Tesla announced a 5-for-1 stock split on 8/11/2020. From the announcement of each stock split to August 31, Apple gained +34% and Tesla gained +81%[viii]. These high gains were in spite of the fact that a stock split simply lowers the price for a share of the company’s stock. A split does not add any economic value to the underlying company and investors can already buy fractional shares through many trading platforms. Ask yourself the following question: Would you like your pizza cut into 8 slices or 16? No matter how many slices you decide to cut the pizza into, you still have the same total amount. If non-value-additive stock splits and acquiring social media properties like TikTok juice your stock price, more company managements may likely be considering doing the same, but we would not rely on that as an investment strategy.
Just a couple of other similarities:
- The market has appreciated about 80% while normalized earnings have flat lined for four years. Going in to 2000, the same thing happened when the spread blew out to 70%[ix].
- The valuation gap between high valuation stocks (29x earnings) and low valuation stocks (10x earnings) remains wide and similar to 2000[x].
- The number of stocks trading over 10x revenues in the Russell 3000 is more than 400, like the year 2000. That means for a 10-year payback, the company needs to pay investors 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends regardless of the cost of goods sold, payroll, taxes, etc[xi].
Where do we go from here? As of August 31, 20 of 22 prominent Wall Street strategists have a year-end 2020 price target for the S&P 500 at or below the closing price of the index[xii]. Valuations did not matter during the Dotcom bubble of 1999 – 2000 until suddenly they did, after Labor Day 2000. Then the narratives about the market and specific “darling” stocks that everyone believed that everyone believed broke. It took two years for the market to reach bottom after the bubble burst. The S&P 500 lost 50% and the NASDAQ lost 78% from the March 2000 peak to the October 2002 low[xiii].
To paraphrase the great Yogi Berra, it’s tough to make
predictions, especially about the future – of what very well may be the largest
financial bubble of all times. That said, market conditions are likely continue
to be volatile for some time. Volatility usually means that we are nearing an
inflection point. We feel strongly that having our safety nets up, bracing for some potential steep air-pockets,
and refraining from speculation in the hyper-valued growth stocks that we are
seeing like Apple and Tesla, is the correct way to be positioned as we wait for
the inflection to present new opportunities. Historically, outsized returns in out-of-favor
areas can appear swiftly and dramatically. If such a move occurs from growth to
areas such as value, dividends and small caps, we are already invested there.
At the same time, we have a plan if the markets and the economy do get better,
likely leading to the bubble marching on.
[i] Calculated from data obtained from Yahoo Finance, as of August 31, 2020
[ii] MSCI, as of August 31, 2020
[iii] Calculated from data obtained from Bloomberg, as of August 31, 2020
[iv] Calculated from data obtained from Yahoo Finance, as of August 31, 2020
[v] https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php as of September 14, 2020
[vi] Factset, September 1, 2020
[vii] Calculated from data obtained from Yahoo Finance, as of September 3, 2020
[viii] Calculated from data obtained from Yahoo Finance, as of August 31, 2020
[ix] Bloomberg Data from 01/01/1990 to 7/31/2020 via Invenomic Capital
[x] Goldman Sachs Investment Research. Data from 01/01/1985 to 6/25/2020
[xi] Bloomberg Data from 01/01/1997 to 07/31/2020 via Invenomic Capital
[xii] Bloomberg, as of August 31, 2020
[xiii] Calculated from data obtained from Yahoo Finance, as of August 31, 2020

CIG Asset Management Update July 2020: Mettle versus Metal
Hopefulness around a COVID-19 vaccine, expectations of additional stimulus, and better-than-expected quarterly corporate earnings in the U.S. bolstered investor sentiment and risk assets in July. Positive vaccine announcements were dominant in investors’ psyche despite a record spike in infection rates in many parts of the country and poor macroeconomic data.
The S&P 500 Index was up for the fourth straight month, increasing 5.5% in July. By month’s end, the index was into positive territory with a 1.2% year-to-date return[1]. At the same time, gold increased 9.5% during the month, pushing year-to-date returns to 29.2%[2].
Gold became an investment across most of our portfolios about a year ago based upon what, at the time, was a high level of uncertainty within the U.S. and global economies. However, last year’s China/U.S. trade war was a walk in the park versus today’s unknowns. Gold has typically been a good hedge against uncertainty and accordingly it has performed well during 2020.

Warren Buffett, a longtime critic of gold as an investment, has said that the “magical metal” is no match for “American mettle.” Recently, he might have changed his tune by buying 21 million shares of Barrick Gold, a gold miner, while also selling shares of financial firms such as Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and J.P. Morgan Chase[3].
The bond market seems to be concerned over the economy as global rates moved lower. In the U.S., yields on 10-year Treasury bond fell 0.11% to 0.528% on July 31. Excluding just one single day this past spring, March 9, this is an all-time record low[4]. When factoring in inflation, U.S. real interest rates moved further into negative territory. With the help of central bank intervention and tighter credit spreads, companies issued debt hand over fist to avoid potential lower availability in the future[5].
The DXY Index, which represents a trade-weighted index for the U.S. dollar and an implicit view of the U.S. in the foreign exchange markets, fell over 4%, its worst monthly performance since 2010[6]. The combination of dollar weakness and risk-on investor sentiment helped non-U.S. equities. In July, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained 8.9%, while developed market stocks, excluding the U.S., as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index, rose 2.3%[7].
While gold’s recent rally partially reflects weakness in the U.S. dollar and the asset’s negative correlation to real rates, U.S. money growth (the so-called M2) has never been faster than it is today. It is two-thirds faster than during the inflationary 1970s and more than two times the growth since 2008[8]. While inflation expectations remain muted, the greater than $4 trillion of fiscal stimulus estimated to be injected in the U.S. economy would suggest that a pick-up in inflation seems quite possible, if not probable.
Going forward, it is our view that the only certainty is that uncertainty will continue. We need to muster our own METTLE to meet these challenges: stretched market valuations, any COVID intensification, grueling elections, China/ U.S. strains and U.S. social tensions. While the recent performance of risk assets has been encouraging, we continue maintain our discipline and dedicated appropriate allocations to gold, Treasuries and cash. We are also attempting to be opportunistic, adding to international and emerging markets equities that may benefit from a continuing weakening of the U.S. dollar.
[1] Yahoo Finance as of July 31, 2020
[2] Yahoo Finance as of July 31, 2020
[3] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/did-warren-buffett-just-bet-against-the-us-economy-his-latest-investment-raises-some-questions-2020-08-16
[4] Yahoo Finance as of July 31, 2020
[5] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/corporate-borrowing-in-2020-to-smash-prior-records-goldman-says-11598044749
[6] NEPC Monthly report
[8] https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2020/08/14/charts-for-the-beach

CIG Asset Management Update June 2020: The Ride
The pandemic-infused markets have been a roller coaster ride during the first half of 2020. After a short climb in January and February, the S&P 500 Index fell by 35% in just over one month and then staggered back up the lift hill[i]. What twists and turns the market roller coaster will offer next is difficult to know.
Going forward, the best possible outcome in our opinion would be a widely available vaccine by year-end and everyone goes back to work. The U.S. would just need to figure out servicing trillions of additional government debt. Many worse outcomes would likely include no effective vaccine like most viruses, millions of permanent job losses, and enduring changes to business models in multiple industries.
When the market reached its high on June 8, our view was investors seemed to be focused predominantly on the best possible outcome. It is our opinion that the massive rally from the March 23 low was largely driven by “Stimulus” winning the tug-of-war over “COVID-19.” According to Cornerstone Macro, until last week when the European Union agreed to a unified stimulus fund which brought them in line, the U.S. has led the world in fiscal and monetary stimulus.[ii] But the U.S. has continued to lag the world in COVID-19 response. Only some emerging markets now have infection rate trends worse than those of the United States.[iii]
Regardless of any value judgment about the present situation, one could theoretically pull out the playbook for a traditional recession, review the history books, assess the probabilities/outcomes and lock in a portfolio for the next two years and perhaps experience a ride like Cedar Point’s kiddie coaster Woodstock Express.
If only more of us were alive back in the 1918 global pandemic and the structure of the economy, technology and banking had more resemblance to today’s world; if only probability theory could be easily be applied to a pandemic occurring in a non-ergodic, uncertain time, maybe we could do that. A non-ergodic system, such as this time, has no real long-term properties i.e., history is no help to predicting the future. It is prone to path dependency – which is just a fancy statistical way of saying that “THE RIDE is everything”.
Months like March keep us up at night. When we think about the markets, we are thinking about our goals, dreams, fears, and hopes. These long-term goals end up in the financial plan and are embedded in the portfolio strategy that our clients may select. Given a choice between being down -35% or losing -15% in March, many of us would choose -15%. At the same time, we try to stay focused on the long-term goals.
Now that we may be again back at the metaphorical top of the coaster’s lift hill, it is important to consider the next moves both prudently and imaginatively. Since June 8, the S&P 500 Index has been alternating between gains and losses around a 250-point range[iv]. There have been several 2%+ declines, including June 11’s -6% loss when Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said, “We’re not even thinking about raising rates” any time soon. Investors were distressed that the dovish Fed does not expect to raise rates until 2023. With almost 40 +/-2% days this year, the markets are on pace for the most swings since 1933[v]. For the month of June, the S&P 500 index returned just 1.8% while gaining 20.5% during the quarter (the best quarter since 1998)[vi].
For now, the stunning market rally from the March 23 low appears to have come to a pause in the U.S. Investors are back to that nervous feeling when checking the market each morning as if looking over the precipice of the rollercoaster’s first hill. What investors see is a stock market that is at peak valuations, as measured by total market capitalization / GDP (which we have talked about in the past)[vii]:

As the chart above clearly illustrates, there is no history that shows valuations over 150% to GDP are sustainable, even for brief periods of time. Yesterday, GDP for the second quarter was announced and the -33% annualized decrease was its worst quarterly hit since the Great Depression[viii]. With GDP falling from approximately $21.5 trillion to $19.4 trillion, valuations are now over 170% to GDP.
The S&P5, the so called FAAMG[ix] stocks, earlier this month added over a half a trillion in market cap in just 6 days. (Please see the chart[x] below showing the percentage return of these five stocks from June 29 to July 8.) In 2020, these stocks have added over $1.6 trillion in market cap[xi], a striking feat during any bull market with excellent growth, not a historic recession. Sure, some of these companies may have grabbed market share and pulled some sales forward during the shutdown but they all face anti-trust concerns which seem to be bi-partisan and international concerns. These stocks are disproportionately driving the market.

Certainly, economic data has seen a massive improvement from the recent historic collapses. However, it important to keep focused on year-over-year data and especially permanent job losses, which keep mounting. The chart[xii] below shows data from the US Department of Labor with the blue line indicating the number of temporarily laid off workers in the US and the yellow line displaying the number of permanently laid off workers.

Today, past experience is not unworkable, but if relied on thoughtlessly it can be hazardous. Some events will play out in the future as they have in the preceding times, but many will not. As indicated above, markets are rich and driven by a few stocks and simultaneously, the U.S. is experiencing some of the worst economic conditions in a long time.
Based upon CIG’s investment process and what we saw in the markets, we had fortunately already started to get more conservative in 2019 in the Strategic and Dynamic portfolios. Fast forward to 2020, at the beginning of February when the markets became more volatile, we acted within the Dynamic portfolios to reduce risk further, primarily by reducing the portfolios’ exposures to equities and adding to diversifying assets generally believed to be protective in a downdraft. We continued to act in March to attempt to dial-in the appropriate market exposure in the Dynamic portfolios, increasing risk, primarily by adding equities, after the market bottomed on March 23.
Hopefully, our strategic and tactical actions have allowed our clients to sleep better at night. CIG attempts in its client portfolios to get closer to the kiddie coaster experience versus the full rollercoaster ride of the S&P 500 index. The most important job is to strike the appropriate balance between offense and defense, i.e., the risk of losing money and the risk of missing opportunity. There will continue to be twists and turns along the ride but so far, all the previous scary rollercoaster rides in the market have concluded the same way: eventually, they stopped.
We will see in the coming months how the tug-of-war between Stimulus and COVID-19 plays out. There is probably nothing more path dependent than re-opening an economy in a pandemic. Let us hope for the best – a confidence-inspiring Goldilocks-style “not-too-fast / not-too-slow” opening, while also considering the myriad of possible economic and financial outcomes. Of course, never ignore the extreme risks which do not appear to be going away, especially as positive COVID-19 cases trend higher. We continue to be thoughtful, adaptable and at your service.
[i] Calculated from data obtained from Yahoo Finance, as of July 27, 2020
[ii] Cornerstone Macro, CSM Weekly Narrative, July 26, 2020, page 2.
[iii] Coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html, as of July 30, 2020.
[iv] Calculated from data obtained from Yahoo Finance, as of July 27, 2020
[v] Bespoke Investment Group, July 2020
[vi] Calculated from data obtained from Yahoo Finance, as of July 27, 2020
[vii] Bloomberg as of July 30, 2020
[viii] Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
[ix] Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google
[x] StockCharts.com via NorthmanTrader on July 9, 2020
[xi] “Warning”, NorthmanTrader, July 9, 2020
[xii] U.S. Department of Labor via Bloomberg as of July 6, 2020.

CIG Asset Management Update May 2020: Stay the Course
Equity markets continued their recovery from the March 2020 lows. In the month of May, the S&P 500(1) gained +4.5% and outside of the U.S., the MSCI EAFE net was up +4.1% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index was up +0.6%(2). Growth outperformed value as measured by the Russell 1000 Growth Index, +6.6% versus the Russell 1000 Value Index which was up +1.1%. Small-cap stocks, as measured by the Russell 2000 index, were up +2.6%(3). Within fixed income, the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Total Return Index returned +0.5% and the Barclays U.S. High Yield Index increased +4.4% for the month(4). The FAAMG stocks, as mentioned in our April letter: Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL), continue to drive performance within the S&P 500. Year-to-date through May 27, the FAAMG stocks are up an average of +15% versus the other 495 companies in the S&P 500 down -8%(5). |

The good news within these numbers is that for the month of May, the FAAMG stocks and other 495 stocks were up almost equally. This could be quite constructive, as a broader number of stocks contributing to the overall return of the S&P 500 may lead to a healthier market.
We are encouraged as more states begin the process of re-opening their economies. It remains to be seen how the civil unrest that has followed the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis over the past few days will impact re-opening efforts.
On May 22, Barron’s published an article, “Day Trading Has Replaced Sports Betting as America’s Pastime. It Can’t Support the Stock Market Forever.” Within this article, Jim Bianco from Bianco research argues many people who typically would gamble on sports went to the stock market as sports have been shut down. In addition, many Americans took their coronavirus stimulus check and invested it into stocks. Online brokerages have seen a surge in new accounts this year. Robinhood saw three million new accounts in the first quarter, and the total number of stock positions more than doubled year-to-date(6), even with the platform suffering crashes and glitches on heavy trading volume days.

Bianco believes that this retail investor mania has driven much of the markets’ 30%+ retracement from the low.(7) Retail investors piled into low-priced stocks that were down considerably, hoping to make big profits if they rebounded. The dangers here are i) hundreds of companies have withdrawn their revenue guidance for 2020(8), ii) only 63% of companies beat analysts’ consensus expectation – the lowest quarterly figure in seven years(9), and, finally, iii) multiple pharmaceutical companies have put out “market-moving” positive press releases without remotely having the vaccine data to back up their claims(10).
As we talked about in our recent webinar, we at CIG believe the path to successful investing over the long term is to develop a plan, exercise discipline, and stay the course. Retail investors piling into stocks that are down significantly or betting on vaccine cures, looking for short term profits, is not a long-term plan.
The most encouraging news in May was the May 28 unemployment claims report that showed continuing claims decreased by 3.86 million to 21.05 million. This is the first decrease since February, before the shut-downs. Although the absolute level of continuing claims is still over three times higher than the post-Great Financial Crisis high of 6.64 million(11), we are happy to see claims heading in the right direction. Volatility, as measured by the VIX, has also decreased from 34.15 on April 30, to 28.43 on June 1. This is still high versus historical averages; however, it is a far cry from the March 16 high of 82.69(12).
If volatility continues to fall and high frequency data following the progression of the economy reopening improves, we are likely to continue with the plan to rebalance towards the strategic equity targets. If volatility surges and reopening efforts are hindered by a resurgence in coronavirus cases due to the recent crowds of people protesting, we have a plan. Please always be mindful that our main objective is to reach the return necessary to achieve your goals as outlined in your financial plan, not to pursue returns without regard to risk. Valuations remain excessively high.
This report was prepared by CIG Asset Management and reflects the current opinion of the authors. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security. SOURCES: 1. Calculated from data obtained from Yahoo Finance, as of June 1, 2020 2. MSCI, as of June 1, 2020 3. FTSE Russell, as of June 1, 2020 4. Calculated from data obtained from Bloomberg, as of June 1, 2020 5. FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, May 27, 2020 6. CNBC, May 12, 2020 7. Barron’s, May 22, 2020 8. https://www.wsj.com/graphics/how-coronavirus-spread-through-corporate-america/ 9. https://www.jhinvestments.com/weekly-market-recap, Week ended May 29, 2020 10. https://www.businessinsider.com/perfect-storm-of-stupid-in-stock-market-right-now-2020-5 11. US Department of Labor, May 28, 2020 12. Data obtained from Yahoo Finance, as of June 1, 2020 |

CIG Asset Management Update April 2020: Uncharted Territory
Equity markets embarked on their own version of the much hoped-for “v” shaped economic recovery during the month of April, even as economic data continued to record nasty numbers. The S&P 500(1) gained +12.7%, recovering much of the prior month’s losses. Outside of the U.S., the MSCI EAFE net(2) was up +6.5% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index was up +9.2%(2). Within fixed income, the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Total Return Index (3) returned +1.8% and the Barclays U.S. High Yield Index(3) increased +4.5% for the month.
In April, there was a continued tug-of-war between economic reality and hopes that the worst of the pandemic may be behind us:
On Friday, April 3, it was reported that the March unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since August 2017.(4) Over the following weekend, many anecdotal news stories came out, spreading hope that COVID-19 was peaking. The ensuing Monday, April 8, the S&P 500 was up +7.03% for the day(5).
The weekly unemployment report on April 9 showed another 6.6 million in weekly claims(6), only to be quickly forgotten about as the Federal Reserve issued a statement within seconds of the Department of Labor release. The Fed announced a $2.3 trillion relief package including the Main Street Lending Program, to lend money to mid-sized businesses, and a municipal and corporate bond buying program. Â This latest Fed action put them far past anything they attempted during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.
The April 16 weekly unemployment claims were 5.2 million(6), and the following day, a report that Remdesivir, an anti-viral drug may help treat symptoms of COVID-19, was made public.
Then on April 21, West Texas Intermediate oil futures settled at a negative number – never before had that happened! The following day, President Trump tweeted that we could shoot Iran boats down in the Persian Gulf, and of course, the oil and the stock markets rallied.
On April 23, weekly unemployment claims totaled 4.4 million(6). The following day, April 24, President Trump said that Apple CEO Tim Cook told him in a private conversation that he believes there will be a “v” shaped economic recovery, and markets moved higher.
April 30 weekly report brought another 3.8 million unemployed claims(6). The following weekend, several states began to gradually reopen their economies.
As can be clearly seen in the above timeline, every extremely negative economic statistic that was reported in April was met soon after by either a Federal Reserve announcement, a Trump tweet or positive news stories about pandemic hopes.
No rallies are more violent than bear market rallies and seeing April produce one of the most forceful rallies in decades fits that playbook. We would argue that the markets just followed a historic playbook given historic interventions on the monetary and fiscal fronts. Warren Buffett indicated at his May shareholders’ meeting that he’s not finding places of value to invest and has announced the selling of all airline shares with the view that the impacts of the recent crisis will not magically disappear but will take time to filter through the system.
In the meantime, what is driving the performance of the S&P 500 Index? To oversimplify, it comes down to five companies; Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL). The acronym that most on Wall Street use is FAAMG. Year-to-date through April 30, the FAAMG stocks are up an average of +10% versus the other 495 companies in the S&P 500 down -13%(7).

The performance spread between the FAAMG stocks and rest of the S&P 500 will most likely narrow over time. The lagging 495 stocks could begin to catch up with the leaders, FAAMG could start underperforming, or a combination of the two.
We have mentioned before that it’s not possible to forecast the path of the pandemic. In contrast to the above, states reopening and the massive Federal stimulus have already produced “green shoots” suggesting that the economy could begin to recover. Starbucks announced on May 5 they planned to open 85% of its locations by the end of the week, with contactless pickup and cashless payments. Simon Properties, the country’s largest shopping mall operator, announced it would open malls as states allow it. Recent activity on the Apple map app is showing signs that driving activity is starting to rebound. We would especially like to strike an optimistic tone on that last point.
Here at CIG we continue to be proactive and nimble as we see how long this bear market rally and tug-of-war can continue.
This report was prepared by CIG Asset Management and reflects the current opinion of the authors. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
SOURCES:
- Calculated from data obtained from Yahoo Finance, as of May 1, 2020.
- MSCI, as of May 1, 2020
- NEPC
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, April 3, 2020
- Calculated from data obtained from Yahoo Finance, as of May 1, 2020
- United States Department of Labor.
- FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

CIG Asset Management Update March 2020: March Madness
Market volatility continued through the month of March and continues month to date at extreme levels. Long time readers of our updates know that we have been warning about asset bubbles and Central Banks’ recent actions since last year. Valuation, volatility and liquidity are the three main areas that we believe investors should focus on right now.
Valuation: In spite of a -20% year to date return for the S&P 500(1) through March 31st, U.S. stock market valuations are still quite high relative to the size of the U.S. economy on a historical basis. The ratio of total U.S. market capitalization to GDP (TMC/GDP), reached an all-time high of 151.3% in December 2019(2). As a result of the sharp sell-off in March 2020, TMC/GDP dropped -21% to 119.2% as of March 30th(2). As easy as it is to measure total market capitalization on a daily basis, nobody knows how much or for how long the U.S. economy (GDP) will decline. The TMC/GDP ratio fell to 75 or lower during the post-Dot Com recession in 2001 and the Great Financial Crisis in 2009. An argument could be made that if the contraction in the economy is large and persistent enough, the U.S. stock market may not have yet seen its low.

Volatility: March witnessed two of the top 20 daily percentage gains and two of the top 20 percentage daily losses for the Dow Jones Industrials Average (Dow), ever(3). Generally, these periods of extreme moves to the upside and downside have not occurred at or near market bottoms. Major market bottoms have occurred once volatility becomes more muted. Please reference the table below. As of this writing, we can add an additional top 20 up day. The Dow was up +7.7% on April 6, 2020(3).

Liquidity: Following the rare emergency interest rate cut on March 3rd, the Fed cut the fed funds rate again by 1% to a 0 to 0.25% range at a subsequent emergency meeting on Sunday, March 14th. The Fed balance sheet expanded by an average $1 million per second from March 18th to March 31st. Bank of America believes the balance sheet could expand to $9 trillion by the end of the year (~40% of the U.S. economy.)(4) This is an exponential move from the expansion that began in late 2018. Typically, when the Federal Reserve pumps money into the financial system, stock market volatility calms down. In spite of unprecedented Fed action, volatility in March remained high. In fact, for the month of March, the stock market as measured by the S&P 500, moved intra-day an average of 5%, the most for any month on record. Even through the depths of the Depression or the Great Financial Crisis, the average intra-day move did not surpass 4%.(5)

Despite the continued ups and down, we would offer a little additional commentary beyond what we have discussed in the two recent webinars and above. For March, the numbers speak for themselves. The S&P 500(1) lost -12.4%, while the MSCI EAFE Net Index(6) of developed international equities was down -13.3% and the Emerging Markets Net Index(6) declined -15.4%. The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Total Return Index (7) returned -0.6% last month. The Barclays US High Yield Index(7) decreased -11.5% for the month. Hopefully, you are not too glued to CNBC or Fox Business News which we have warned house-bound market watchers about, given the media’s continued emotional rollercoaster and market manipulation (yes, we are talking about you, Bill Ackman).
In March, we kept our heads down and continued to focus on the one of the most important aspects of our relationship with clients. Beyond the investment expertise that we offer, our job is to ensure when times like this arise that we work together to restrain any exuberant investment behaviors as well as moderate our fearful investment behaviors.
The actions that we took in March in the Dynamic portfolios exemplify this goal. When the ten-year Treasury bond declined to an all-time low yield, we reduced portfolios exposures to long-term bonds. As you may recall, prices increase when bond yields fall. When it appeared that equity markets were temporarily bottoming, we increased our stock market exposure by adding to the equity hedge fund manager. During the last week of the month, when it looked like the House of Representatives would approve the CARES Act, we increased Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPs) and more market sensitive equity positions. Overall, the Dynamic portfolios ended the month with more stock market exposure but not dramatically so.
Last week, we began our quarterly rebalancing of portfolios towards their strategic targets. We identified some areas that seem to be successful in this current environment, and we reduced cash and bonds that previously worked but are less likely to do so going forward. We are taking incrementally more risk via adding to defensive equities like healthcare and consumer staples. In certain portfolios, we added a “value-add” fund that is focused on a trend-following process which can work in higher-volatility markets.
On a positive note, we would quote Dr. Anthony Fauci: “You can’t rush the science, but when the science points you in the right direction, then you can start rushing.”(8) We have many laboratories looking to develop and roll out a vaccine. When the science is ready, a solution to the virus could come well before the usual 18 months. Even if we end up “going old school” and transferring plasma from previously infected individuals, we will get to the mountaintop and, ultimately, see a safer public health, economic and investment environment. Until then, we will continue to very nimble and proactive as we manage the portfolio allocation.
This report was prepared by CIG Asset Management and reflects the current opinion of the authors. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
- Calculated from data obtained from Yahoo Finance, as of April 1, 2020.
- https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average
- “How big could the Fed’s balance sheet get?” Financial Times, April 5, 2020 citing report from Bank of America
- Bloomberg, Jonathan Ferro as of March 31, 2020
- MSCI, as of April 1, 2020.
- NEPC
- https://www.brainyquote.com/lists/authors/top-10-anthony-fauci-quotes